Heat waves, Public health and mitigation

Heat waves, Public health and mitigation. Dr. Kedar Karki Global climate change is almost certain to increase the frequency and intensity of heat waves. Over the last fifty years we have seen an increase in heat wave events, an increase scientists believe is the result at least in part, of human activity. Had it not been so in our own country until few year ago this phenomena use to occur in few particular part areas like Nepalganj, Bhairahawa but these days even Kathmandu valley itself is not aloof of it. Normal pattern of rainfall now becomes a story of past. Prolong spell of dry spell since last autumn rain is still continue when monsoon will start and what will be its pattern for metrologist it seems to be uphill task to predict. The recently released Fourth Assessment of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) concludes that heat waves will very likely increase over most land areas over the course of this century. Conservative modeling estimates predict that these increases, absent significant reductions in carbon emissions, will result in a 70% increase in heat-wave deaths in the world over the next forty years. Heat waves differ in important respects from natural disasters like hurricanes or earthquakes. Our collective memory about these events fades quickly once temperatures return to normal. Few people seem to remember, for example, that the Chicago heat wave of 1995 killed more than 700 people, or that more than 52,000 Europeans perished in the extreme heat of the summer of 2003–including more than 14,800 in France alone. Even the 2006 deadly heat wave in California, in which at least 140 and as many as 466 people died, has faded quickly from public consciousness. Furthermore, a prolonged heat wave during the summer of 1980, during which researchers estimate that between 1,500 and 10,000 people perished, has been long forgotten. Increased heat waves from climate change are not, of course, the only catastrophic effects expected from global warming. Some of the most dramatic effects may require large structural and political changes. For example, massive sea level rise will require infrastructure investments to protect vulnerable shorelines, and prolonged drought may cause political upheaval and unrest in areas of the world where water is already scarce. The good news about increased heat waves, by contrast, is that we already posses the know-how to respond to the corresponding increase in health risk. Heat waves are not a new phenomenon, and some jurisdictions have made impressive strides in reducing heat-wave deaths. But many jurisdictions across the world are ill-prepared to cope. If Hurricane Katrina and its aftermath have taught us anything, it is that we need local, contextualized preparation taking into account cultural, social and economic realities to minimize catastrophe. The phenomenon of heat waves is being considered for two reasons. First, heat waves already pose a large health threat to our most vulnerable populations and, though we possess the means and know-how to prevent many heat-wave deaths, many world jurisdictions are unprepared to cope. Second, the future looks even worse. As the IPCC Fourth Assessment warns, global climate change will very likely increase the frequency and intensity of extreme heat events over the course of the 21st century. Unless we engage in efforts to mitigate the worst effects of extreme heat, heat death tolls will dwarf current annual rates. The numbers of those who die from excess heat annually are already significant: more people die heat-related deaths annually in the tropics on average, than from any other natural disaster. Though most of us are simply uncomfortable when the temperatures rise, a much more dire consequence of excess heat is a rapid rise in mortality rates, particularly among the most vulnerable populations.

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